Source: Carson Investment Research, Factset 04/11/2023
Link is here if you want to listen but we get around China, the US and domestic markets.
Also, at the back end, I get the chance to have a catch-up with one of the greats of the game and Tigers Assistant Coach, Robbie Farah, to talk about who’s hot and who’s not in the League so far this year, along with the announcement of the winner of the first leg of our NRL tipping comp. $500 is a good prize for tipping. Link here to join and you can still win lots.
It’s nice having David on the podcast once in a while. He’s a great guy and his opinions don’t often track the herd. One of the things we mention about markets is US inflation being very much still untamed.
What’s painful in the whole core vs non-core numbers and how much is excluded from presented numbers?
Many economists will say I’m unqualified to say this, but then again, many economists are like this guy…
Source: Paul Krugman - X
Krugman is a hack but it’s an example of how much inflation gets reported to regular people that doesn’t tell the whole story. Central Banks can remove things from the Inflation numbers but we can’t. Cost increases in the energy market do trickle down to everything else we do. Same as rent, the same as food.
Any Seinfeld fans out there know the great “write-off” gag they did, and some genius reworded it for the loons on Financial Twitter as a dig at Krugman.
Source: BuccoCapital Bloke - X
Actual Numbers
This is from the Kobeissi Letter, who are perennially bearish but still speak the truth.
“Core services less shelter inflation is a key metric that the Fed follows, also known as SuperCore inflation. In March, this metric jumped by 0.7% month-over-month, the biggest jump since September 2022. SuperCore inflation is now up 5.0% year-over-year, its highest since April 2023. This comes after multiple monthly increases since the 2023 low. Meanwhile, headline CPI inflation is up for 2 straight months for the first time since September 2023. All while real wage growth is turning negative again. The fight against inflation is far from over.”
I agree, that inflation is far from over in the USA. Rates will remain higher for longer. Theoretically, this means gold should be sold off. However, as mentioned last week gold doesn’t make any sense.
What about the best country in the world, Jimmy James?
As for here, I’m happy to put my boot on the table and join CBA’s Gareth Aird in his rate cut call. Lower much sooner.
Here are some good bits from his note late last week, which can be found here Issues-12-Apr-2024-0910-1.pdf and I’m responsible for the highlighting.
yikes
Great time to refi your house at a variable rate if you agree it will come down over the next 12 months. I guess going long Aussie bonds at the short end should work too if you’re into that sort of thing.
Speaking of which, it’s good to know the Fin have their priorities straight.
Finally, and I should always mention copper. Copper keeps rallying. You should pay more attention. We like Alma Metals for copper exposure (ASX: ALM)
China is getting set for some kind of second half of the year and I’m fearful the world is underprepared for it.
Act accordingly.