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BPC Wealth Management holds the view that gold will continue to remain a focal point of the ongoing commodities rally and maintain its long-term momentum over the year ahead. While periodic volatility is expected, we believe the metal is well positioned to move higher over the medium term, supported by a range of macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts.

Following a strong rally, gold prices have experienced a modest pullback in recent days from record highs. This appears to be driven primarily by short-term macro factors, including a firmer US dollar, shifting real interest-rate expectations, and profit-taking after a rapid period of appreciation. Importantly, this pattern is consistent with historical consolidation phases following sharp rallies. Gold’s ability to hold key support levels and stabilise reinforces the strength of its underlying fundamentals, including its role as a hedge against inflation, currency uncertainty, and broader global risk.

Gold Price Forecasts Highlight Long-Term Upside

Multiple global investment banks have upgraded their price forecasts, reflecting significant upside potential for gold companies across the spectrum. This includes price forecasts of:

• US$6,000 from Deutsche Bank and 

• US$6,300 from J.P Morgan Chase; and

• US$6,200 from UBS

These forecasts highlight gold’s strong positioning supported by tightening supply conditions, sustained investor demand, and its traditional role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.

We remain bullish on gold, with risks skewed to the upside amid ongoing global change. Gold is expected to continue benefiting from capital rotation out of US assets, supported by increasing interest from both institutional and retail investors.

Structural Drivers Remain Firmly Intact

From a structural standpoint, gold continues to be supported by elevated geopolitical risk, ongoing trade tensions, subdued global growth expectations, de-dollarisation trends, and its enduring role as a store of value relative to fiat currencies. Broader commodities positioning has also been increasing (including base metals), reflecting investor sensitivity to economic conditions and market volatility. 

In our view, the recent gold price pullback should be interpreted as a period of healthy consolidation within a broader uptrend, reinforcing the relative attractiveness of quality gold exposures with strong cash flow and valuation support.

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