James Whelan
- May 6, 2025
- 5 min read
On Portfolio Reviews, Fake & Bakes and Greed is Back!! - Market Map from James Whelan
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An absolutely sensational weekend in Brisbane for Magic Round and still buzzing from the continual forward progress the NRL makes. Brisbane blows me away every time I visit, clean and friendly. Good weather.
After the games on Saturday I avoided the carry on and found my way back to the hotel, put the slippers on and watched the final presentation by Antony Green on the ABC as limby limb the Coalition was torn apart by…well…themselves I guess.
Anyone chasing insight from someone who has been involved with these things in the past can learn something now about the way the Liberal Party works: A Liberal PM cannot be from any state other than NSW and there are teams of people who will sabotage any campaign with any Opposition leader from the other states.
I’m not a Dutton fan but that was a woeful campaign.
Still…could be worse
Now we need to get ourselves all ready for whatever is to come on taxing unrealised gains and question marks on negative gearing. Also, it’s all BAU on house prices, not that Dutton was set to do anything there.
I’ll leave that for the papers to discuss though.
Berkshire Hathaway had their Annual over the weekend, and I’m not so cliché to put up Buffett’s trading philosophies etc, but he’s stepping down and he’s an inspiration to investors everywhere.
Amazingly his outperformance of the US market over the last 10 years is down to the one investment in Apple in 2016, when it was already the biggest company in the world.
See value, buy value.
Speaking of buying and holding the market the absolute evidence that markets are not economies has been that even in the face of what could be a light recession (according to predictions) in the US as detailed last week, the S&P 500 still managed to power on to 9 consecutive up days until last night. Most of the Mag 7 beat expectations.
Still, and regardless, Instos/Hedge Funds aren’t buying it.
Meaning one of two things. This rally in the face of recession is a fake and bake rugpull that will trap retail buyers once again OR this is the biggest pain trade at the moment and when/if it is finally believed to be a real rally the next leg up will be as fast as…well…that original mag 7 run that had everyone questioning their lives.
Get Greedy
Just in…Greed is back. First time it’s been triggered this year
And finally the lovely little chart from UBS on the allocations of family offices.
Note gold…you gotta squint.
Use this for reference when talking to us about portfolio reviews.
Speaking of which now is the time to get a bit ruthless on your portfolio. Drop me a line to discuss selling before EOFY or locking in profits on gains.
Finally
Massive week this week with the RIU Sydney mining conference on. Lots of small caps to meet and you know nothing gets me interested like talking stopes with small cap mining MDs.
So, no Trade That Paid today because we’ll almost certainly have a few out of the conference which I’ll share with all haste over video.
Also, if anyone has some good names they want me to dig into and run through the filter I’d be more than happy to.
One of our previous Trades That Paid has absolutely come home to roost.
Gold Roads (GOR) was one I banged the table on a few months back at ~$2.20 and has finally settled (for now) on a takeover price and Jeffries just raised target price to $3.40. last trade $3.22
48% from point to point, I’ll take it.
Source: Fidelity
Stay safe and all the best,
James
PS- Impact Minerals shortfall done. Very confident on the story from here. Thanks all for participation.
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