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We dropped a lovely little podcast on Friday with some great tips and market views.
It’s also looking like fan favourite stock Locksley Resources is likely doing a quick raise. (They went into halt this morning and gave that reason, so there’s nothing sensitive in that statement) As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m keen on anything in the rare earth space and even keener on anything made in the USA. Tariff-free, geopolitically sound rare earths and antimony are located right there in the Mojave. I’ll take that any day.
I’ve been out to the site in the Mojave and I’ve seen the surface readings. I’ve seen how close it is to Mountain Pass (15% of the world’s Rare Earth supply) and I’ve committed to the name and need to secure these assets for defence purposes.
From 2024, taking surface readings at the El Campo tenement on the Californian side of the Mojave.
Drop me a note if you’re interested in the name.
Now to business
Where is it heading?
“Small caps are dead in the US, rates are going ballistic, find comfort elsewhere” was the theme of the day on my little Ausbiz appearance on Thursday. I’d done all the work calling for a short-term correction and it literally happened the morning before going on air. Always the way.
If you’d like to save your eyeballs, then have a watch here. Tottenham has just won a trophy so I obviously find a way to talk about that.
But here’s the brief…
This one was telling and speaks to the weird administration, but also in large caps to absorb the hit through margins.
Source: Donald J. Trump - X
Small caps have to eat this and they can’t.
We’re all eyes on shelves over July 4th as we’ll see retailers and store owners scramble to fill the void left by not getting orders in time for summertime sales.
But the market went up?
We have loved this rally but have not trusted it.
Because…
Source: J.P. Morgan
From Bloomberg on Tuesday: “Retail accounted for 36% of all trading volume today. Highest ever. Retail has learned the hard way, getting left behind during previous stock recoveries supported by policy puts. There is almost an unwavering commitment from retail to never make that mistake again”. Said Frank Monkam.
I agree with the sentiment but think it’s based on a fallacy. Retail can be shaky.
Vs…
During last week, Hedge Funds have added $25 billion of short equity futures exposure over the last 3 Commitment of Trade reports, the largest increase AT LEAST in the last decade.
Source: Moomoo
Which takes us to….
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 21.4, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.3).
Source: FactSet
Market was/is expensive…
And
Small Cap Stocks are on track for the largest annual outflow in the history of $68 billion.
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR
Which takes us to this lovely little (and a bit fun) chart from a guy called Andy Constan
Source: Andy Constan - X
Funny where we are now…
We are not buyers of the market here. Soon, but not today.
We prefer Uranium names at the moment, on the back of Trump policy and European reversal of policy. There are some names we have researched on which I’d be more than happy to share with all and sundry.
All the best,
James
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