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A week is a long time in markets, and we managed to go from “it’s so over” to “we’re so back” in a matter of hours.
“Stay Invested” has been the theme of the month in the face of US tariff nonsense, based on the simple matter that it can be turned on and off like a tap. If tariff chatter gets rolled back, then the market will rally and rally hard, simply because everything was fine before they began.
However, keep an eye on the lasting effects of the disruption, being a continuing ending of globalisation, commodities trade restrictions (like Rare Earths) and a breakdown of trade routes, ala early Covid days.
There’s money to be made out of all of these things on the side while the bulk of your portfolio stays happily invested in local and international bonds and equities.
We cover this and more in the podcast recorded on Friday, which includes a quick wrap of the recent RIU Resources Round Up we attended last week.
Link here with some great insight on markets from Heath
Here is the S&P500 with Liberation Day pointed at with the big blue arrow.
Source: TradingView
In the face of a retraction in global trade and potential shortages on shelves, and that tariffs are always inflationary, with a Fed that had managed to manoeuvre the post-COVID world into a wonderful growth/expectation of lower rates/nice employment numbers life.
The market is back to where it was!
This game is easy.
Note, it does this in the face of:
Source: Barchart
Vegas is cactus. Ghost town now.
Source: BofA Securities
Hedge funds and instos still aren’t buying this. It’s all retail.
Source: Vizion, U.S. Global Investors
Year on year numbers for container bookings from China are also cactus.
Source: Bloomberg
See?
What point am I trying to prove? Always simply be aware of the world around you, but only use it to make small tweaks.
The Trade That Paid
Long-held name Locksley Resources released an announcement to the market last week regarding their holding in the Mohave.
Highlights:
- Mojave Project located only ~1.4 km from the Mountain Pass Mine, the only producing rare earth mine in the U.S
- Drilling permit formally submitted to Bureau of Land Management (BLM) •
- Up to 46% Antimony (Sb) and 1,022 g/t Silver (Ag) from surface assays at the Desert Antimony Mine1 Multiple samples exceeding 17% Sb, confirming a high-grade mineralised system1
- Surface mineralisation traced over 400 metres, with potential extensions under cover
Source: TradingView
Stock has reacted well…
If you’ll recall, I noted that we’d witnessed some great Rare Earth readings while I was out on site last year. This confirms what I saw. I’m happy to hold/add to Locksley Resources here.
I get the boots dirty so you don’t have to…
If, however, you’re thinking that this opportunity is a good one to roll out of LKY and find some diversification in the market, then we picked up a lot of quality names across numerous spaces at the conference last week.
In short, your watchlist should contain:
Uranium, antimony, gold and copper.
Should absolutely have something in the US. If tariffs continue, then the US will need their own locally grown commodities.
Serious management, not part-timers.
We’ve done the work on these ones, so drop me a line to discuss: https://share.hsforms.com/142Qa4lMfRpy_p2Efb-qydA3y8rq
Generally speaking, with the easing of tensions on trade, the world can start spinning again, so a healthy basket of commodity names is not the worst idea.
Stay safe and all the best,
James
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