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Australia’s export landscape is undergoing a quiet revolution. While iron ore and fossil fuels have long dominated the nation’s trade ledger, a shimmering contender is rising in their place. Once seen largely as a hedge against inflation and a staple of central bank reserves, gold is now rapidly ascending to become one of Australia’s most valuable export commodities. ABSI this week explores the changing export landscape of Australia.

According to federal government forecasts, gold is set to become Australia’s third-biggest export by value in the next year. This marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of Australia's resource-dependent economy and offers a compelling glimpse into the potential shape of the nation’s trade profile 30 years from now.

For much of the 20th and 21st centuries, Australia's economic prosperity has been built on the back of its abundant natural resources. The so-called "quarry economy" has been defined by iron ore, coal, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), three heavyweights that have consistently underpinned the country's trade surplus and fiscal resilience.

Australian Gold Mines & Deposits

Source: Aus Industry

Iron ore, in particular, has been Australia’s dominant export for decades, accounting for over 20% of total export values at its peak. Driven primarily by demand from China’s rapid industrialisation. Likewise, coal, both thermal and metallurgical, played a similar role, powering global energy grids and steel mills. LNG then surged ahead in the last decade, boosted by massive projects off the coasts of Queensland and Western Australia.

However, change is in the air and in the ground. 

While gold has always had a role in Australia's mining sector, it was often overshadowed by the sheer scale and profitability of iron ore and coal. But as global economic uncertainty deepens, central banks diversify reserves, and energy transition policies reshape global demand, gold is stepping into the spotlight.

Australia is the second-largest gold producer globally, trailing only China. With over 300 tonnes produced annually and a robust pipeline of exploration and development, the country is well-placed to capitalise on increasing global appetite for the yellow metal.

Source: Goldprice.org

Data from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources shows that gold exports are forecast to exceed $30 billion in value in the coming year—surpassing LNG and putting it just behind iron ore and coal in the rankings. This rise is partly attributed to surging prices, with gold recently trading near record highs due to geopolitical instability, inflation fears, and strong central bank buying.

Gold's strength lies in its versatility. Unlike fossil fuels, it faces no existential threat from climate policies. Unlike iron ore, it isn’t tied to the fate of a single trading partner. Instead, gold thrives in uncertainty, and if there’s one certainty over the next decade, it’s that uncertainty will persist.

Continually, while Australia remains one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and LNG, the long-term outlook is clouded. Global decarbonisation efforts are accelerating, and many of Australia’s key trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, and members of the EU, have committed to net-zero targets that will diminish fossil fuel imports over time.

Source: Aus Industry

China’s ongoing push to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on imported coal is another blow. As a result, while short-term demand may remain elevated due to energy security concerns, the medium- to long-term trend is downward.

Iron ore, too, faces challenges. China's steel demand is plateauing, and its push to boost domestic ore production and recycling may weaken Australia's position. Meanwhile, the resource itself is finite, and many of our richest deposits are exhausted.

So what does the future hold for Australia’s exports in 30 years’ time?

Here’s a forecasted snapshot of what could define Australia’s trade balance in 2055:

• Gold: As a store of wealth and industrial input, gold may become a structural pillar of exports. It’s resilient to decarbonisation pressures and could remain a consistent performer.
  
  
• Critical minerals: Lithium, rare earths, and cobalt will likely surge as the world electrifies. Australia has rich deposits and growing government support for domestic processing.
  
  
• Green hydrogen and ammonia: If cost-effective production and export logistics are solved, Australia could become a clean energy superpower, particularly serving Asia.
  
  
• Agriculture and water-intensive exports: Climate change may challenge this sector’s growth, but innovations in agri-tech could open new frontiers.
  
  

Gold’s rise as Australia’s third-largest export is more than a short-term surge; it’s a symbol of structural change. As the nation confronts the twin headwinds of resource depletion and decarbonisation, it must lean into commodities and sectors that offer long-term resilience. In this new era, gold shines not just as a precious metal but as a strategic export that can anchor Australia’s trade profile well into the 21st century. For investors, policymakers, and market watchers alike, it’s time to start thinking not just in tonnes of iron, but in ounces of gold.

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