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Last week saw a fresh escalation in the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan — two nuclear-armed neighbours in South Asia with a deeply complicated relationship. While regional skirmishes between the two are not uncommon, the recent flare-up has drawn international attention due to rising casualties and the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States, which was broken within days. For many outside of South Asia, this conflict may seem sudden or confusing. In reality, it’s the latest chapter in a decades-long rivalry rooted in colonial history, religious division, and contested borders. ABSI this week will explore the history of this conflict to provide more context. 

The roots of the India-Pakistan conflict are not new, they date back to 1947, when British colonial rule in the Indian subcontinent came to an end. As part of the decolonisation process, British India was partitioned into two independent nations — a secular but Hindu-majority India, and an Islamic Pakistan (originally comprising both West Pakistan and East Pakistan, the latter of which became Bangladesh in 1971).

Source:  IGES

This partition was marred by chaos and bloodshed. Over 10 million people were displaced in one of the largest mass migrations in human history, and an estimated one to two million people died in communal violence between Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs. The trauma of partition left a legacy of mistrust that continues to influence relations between the two nations.

At the heart of the India-Pakistan conflict is the region of Kashmir. When partition occurred, princely states in India were given the option to join either nation. The Maharaja of Kashmir, a Hindu ruler of a Muslim-majority state, initially chose to remain independent. But when tribal fighters from Pakistan invaded, he sought help from India and acceded to join India in exchange for military assistance.

This decision led to the first India-Pakistan war in 1947-48. A UN-brokered ceasefire eventually established a Line of Control (LoC), dividing Kashmir into Indian-administered and Pakistan-administered zones. However, both countries still claim the territory in full.

Kashmir has since remained a flashpoint, sparking two more major wars (in 1965 and 1999) and countless smaller skirmishes, terrorist attacks, and military stand-offs. The region is heavily militarised, and civilians frequently bear the brunt of violence and political crackdowns.

Why Did the Conflict Flare Up Again?

The latest escalation began with cross-border shelling along the Line of Control, leading to military casualties and civilian deaths on both sides. While small-scale ceasefire violations are common, this exchange was particularly intense, involving heavy artillery fire, drone incursions, and the mobilisation of troops on both sides of the border.

Analysts suggest several contributing factors:

• Domestic politics: Leaders in both countries have at times used nationalism and hardline rhetoric to rally political support. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has pursued a more assertive stance on national security, especially in relation to Kashmir. In Pakistan, the military retains significant influence and often uses India as a unifying threat.
  
  
• Militant activity: Kashmir remains a volatile region where local discontent, separatist sentiment, and militant groups continue to pose a threat. India has long accused Pakistan of supporting and training insurgents, a claim Pakistan denies.
  
  
• Breakdown in diplomacy: Peace talks between the two sides have been largely stalled for years. With no active diplomatic channels and heightened border tensions, minor incidents can quickly spiral out of control.

Source: YouTube

The India-Pakistan conflict isn’t just a regional issue. With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, any significant escalation carries global implications. A full-blown war would destabilise South Asia, impact international markets, and potentially draw in external powers like China, the U.S., and Russia. 

Despite the renewed violence, there remains hope for de-escalation. Track-two diplomacy (informal talks), international pressure, and growing economic challenges in both countries may nudge leaders back to the negotiating table. However, a lasting resolution will require more than temporary ceasefires. It will demand political courage, trust-building, and a willingness to address the underlying issues that have fuelled seven decades of hostility.

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